R16 prop that’s flying under the radar: Paraguay keeper saves vs France (o4.5 @ 1.68)Everyone's on…

R16 prop that’s flying under the radar: Paraguay keeper saves vs France (o4.5 @ 1.68)Everyone's on the France ML / over goals side of this game tonight (5 PM ET). The quieter angle is what France's shot volume does to the opposing keeper's saves line.Pick: Orlando Gill (Paraguay) over 4.5 saves @ 1.68 (-147)France through four games this tournament:\- 25, 18, 19, 11 shots (18.3/game) \- 12, 9, 5, 8 on target (8.5/game)What opposing keepers actually posted against them: 9 saves (Sweden), 5 (Norway), 2 (Iraq), 5 (Senegal). Over 4.5 cashed in 3 of 4 — and the miss was Iraq sitting so deep France only put 5 on frame while scoring 3 of them.Paraguay is a live underdog that will defend in a mid-block, not an Iraq-style bunker, which is the profile that produced the 9-save and 5-save games. If France puts up their tournament-average 8.5 on target, Gill needs to stop just over half of them.Risks, honestly: an early red card or a 3-0-by-60' blowout kills shot urgency, and if Paraguay parks the bus completely you get the Iraq scenario. Confirm Gill starts before kickoff.Odds were 1.68 when I grabbed this — verify live, saves lines move fast on matchday.Anyone got a read on Paraguay's likely shape tonight?redd.it/1unbc2b@rsoccerbetting