Gold Fundamentals, Outlook and ScenariosThe Major Drivers of Gold (by importance):(Rank, Driver, Cur

Gold Fundamentals, Outlook and ScenariosThe Major Drivers of Gold (by importance):(Rank, Driver, Current Effect, Outlook)1 Real interest rates, Bullish, Improving2 Central bank purchases, Very Bullish, Structural3 Fiscal deficits & debt, Very Bullish, Structural4 USD trend, Mildly Bullish, Likely weaker over time5 Geopolitical risk, Bullish, Elevated6 ETF/investor positioning, Neutral, Could improve7 Jewelry demand, Neutral, Less importantScenario 1 — Base Case (60%)Fed gradually eases over time.Growth slows but avoids a deep recession.Real yields drift lower.Central banks continue buying.Dollar softens.Gold:Steady appreciation after periods of consolidation.Scenario 2 — Bull Case (25%)Trigger:recessionaggressive Fed easingdeclining real yieldsgeopolitical escalationOutcome:Gold enters another major advance.Scenario 3 — Bear Case (15%)Trigger:stronger-than-expected economic growthrising productivityhigher real yieldsstronger dollarreduced geopolitical riskGold could experience a meaningful correction before resuming its longer-term trend.Executive Summary• Near term (1–4 weeks): Neutral to slightly bearish (55% probability of continued consolidation)• Short term (1–3 months): Moderately bullish (65–70% probability)• Medium term (6–18 months): Strongly bullish (75–85% probability), barring a major inflation resurgence that forces the Fed back into aggressive tightening.💥 t.me/BBMarketWatch